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What is a Residual and How Does It Impact Leasing?

Written By

CarOracle Experts

Published

May 26, 2023

Ford F-150
Ford F-150
Ford F-150
Ford F-150

Learn how residual value impacts vehicle leasing. Understand the concept easily with our breakdown. Make informed decisions on car leases.

At a Glance:

  • Residual Value: The predicted worth of a vehicle at the end of a lease term, expressed as a percentage of the car's original price.

  • Factors Influencing Residual Value: The make and model, expected usage, and market trends are among the factors considered in predicting a car's residual value.

  • Residual Value and Lease Payments: The predicted depreciation, i.e., the difference between the original cost and the residual value, is a crucial component of your lease payments.

  • High Predicted Residual Value: A car with a high predicted residual value can lower your monthly lease payments, but these are estimates and actual depreciation may vary.

Understanding Residual Value

Understanding Residual Value

When leasing a car, you'll often come across the term 'residual value.' This is a prediction made by the leasing company about the vehicle's worth at the end of the lease term. It's usually expressed as a percentage of the car's initial cost and is a fundamental aspect of the leasing equation.

Determining Residual Value

Accounting Instruction, Help, & How To. (2017, February 22). Residual Value Definition - What is Residual Value? [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4A4ywyzEkEA

Residual values aren't randomly assigned; they are calculated based on several factors. The make and model, the car's popularity, expected usage, and market trends all play significant roles in setting the residual value. Leasing companies rely on industry guidebooks like ALG, owned by JD Power, and Kelley Blue Book, owned by Cox Automotive, along with their internal algorithms, to determine this figure.

Residual Value's Role in Lease Payments

The residual value is crucial in determining your lease payments. When you lease a vehicle, you're essentially paying for the forecasted depreciation that will occur during the lease term. This depreciation is the difference between the original cost of the vehicle and its predicted residual value. Add fees and interest to this, and you have the total cost that is then divided over the lease period to calculate your monthly payments.

For instance, if a new car costs $30,000 and its residual value is predicted to be 60% after three years, the leasing company expects the car to be worth $18,000 at the end of the lease. Thus, your lease payments will cover the anticipated $12,000 depreciation, along with fees and interest, spread over three years.

High Predicted Residual Value: Protection and Potential Costs

A vehicle with a high predicted residual value can lead to lower monthly lease payments. This is because the expected depreciation - the cost you're covering - is less. However, remember that residual values are predictions. The actual depreciation may differ based on various factors such as changes in the car's popularity or shifts in the used car market.

In a closed-end lease, you have the advantage of protection against this uncertainty. Regardless of the actual market value of the vehicle at the end of the lease, you have the option to simply return the car without any additional costs (assuming there's no excessive wear and tear or over-mileage).

On the other hand, if you decide to buy the car at the end of the lease, a higher residual value means a higher purchase price. So, while you save on monthly payments, you might end up paying more if you choose to buy.

Understanding these aspects of residual value can help you navigate your leasing decisions more effectively.

In Conclusion: Informed Decisions

Understanding the concept of residual value and its impact on leasing can help you make more informed decisions about your vehicle financing options. Knowledge is power, and staying informed can lead to savings in the long run. For more insights and practical advice on navigating car ownership and financing, continue to follow CarOracle.com.

Vehicle Valuation & Pricing FAQs

How can I determine if a used car is priced fairly?

To determine whether a used car is priced fairly, start by using vehicle valuation tools like Kelley Blue Book, Edmunds, or Black Book to find the average price range for the specific make, model, year, mileage, and condition of the car you're interested in. Compare the dealer's price with these figures. Next, examine the vehicle's history report for any factors that could affect its value, such as an accident history or extensive repairs. Consider the car's maintenance and service records, if available. Regular maintenance and timely repairs can enhance a vehicle's value. However, always have a trusted mechanic inspect the vehicle to uncover any potential issues that might not be visible or disclosed.

How can I determine if a used car is priced fairly?

To determine whether a used car is priced fairly, start by using vehicle valuation tools like Kelley Blue Book, Edmunds, or Black Book to find the average price range for the specific make, model, year, mileage, and condition of the car you're interested in. Compare the dealer's price with these figures. Next, examine the vehicle's history report for any factors that could affect its value, such as an accident history or extensive repairs. Consider the car's maintenance and service records, if available. Regular maintenance and timely repairs can enhance a vehicle's value. However, always have a trusted mechanic inspect the vehicle to uncover any potential issues that might not be visible or disclosed.

How can I determine if a used car is priced fairly?

To determine whether a used car is priced fairly, start by using vehicle valuation tools like Kelley Blue Book, Edmunds, or Black Book to find the average price range for the specific make, model, year, mileage, and condition of the car you're interested in. Compare the dealer's price with these figures. Next, examine the vehicle's history report for any factors that could affect its value, such as an accident history or extensive repairs. Consider the car's maintenance and service records, if available. Regular maintenance and timely repairs can enhance a vehicle's value. However, always have a trusted mechanic inspect the vehicle to uncover any potential issues that might not be visible or disclosed.

What is Manheim's MMR and how does it feed into Kelley Blue Book, Black Book, and others?

Manheim Market Report (MMR) is a pricing tool used by dealers that provides data on wholesale used vehicle prices, and it's largely based on Manheim auction transactions. These figures are an important input for other vehicle valuation services like Kelley Blue Book and Black Book. The MMR provides a snapshot of what similar vehicles are selling for at wholesale auctions, helping these services understand current market trends and adjust their pricing models accordingly.

For a more in-depth review, please read the article What are Kelley Blue Book Values?


What is Manheim's MMR and how does it feed into Kelley Blue Book, Black Book, and others?

Manheim Market Report (MMR) is a pricing tool used by dealers that provides data on wholesale used vehicle prices, and it's largely based on Manheim auction transactions. These figures are an important input for other vehicle valuation services like Kelley Blue Book and Black Book. The MMR provides a snapshot of what similar vehicles are selling for at wholesale auctions, helping these services understand current market trends and adjust their pricing models accordingly.

For a more in-depth review, please read the article What are Kelley Blue Book Values?


What is Manheim's MMR and how does it feed into Kelley Blue Book, Black Book, and others?

Manheim Market Report (MMR) is a pricing tool used by dealers that provides data on wholesale used vehicle prices, and it's largely based on Manheim auction transactions. These figures are an important input for other vehicle valuation services like Kelley Blue Book and Black Book. The MMR provides a snapshot of what similar vehicles are selling for at wholesale auctions, helping these services understand current market trends and adjust their pricing models accordingly.

For a more in-depth review, please read the article What are Kelley Blue Book Values?


What is Kelley Blue Book's Fair Purchase Price and what is it based on?

Kelley Blue Book's Fair Purchase Price is an indicator of what other buyers in your area have been paying for a similar vehicle. It's derived from millions of real-world transactions and adjusted regularly as market conditions change. This includes both dealership and private party sales. Keep in mind that the Fair Purchase Price is a range, not a single number, and your actual price may vary depending on factors like color, options, dealer incentives, and local demand.

For a more in-depth review, please read the article What are Kelley Blue Book Values?


What is Kelley Blue Book's Fair Purchase Price and what is it based on?

Kelley Blue Book's Fair Purchase Price is an indicator of what other buyers in your area have been paying for a similar vehicle. It's derived from millions of real-world transactions and adjusted regularly as market conditions change. This includes both dealership and private party sales. Keep in mind that the Fair Purchase Price is a range, not a single number, and your actual price may vary depending on factors like color, options, dealer incentives, and local demand.

For a more in-depth review, please read the article What are Kelley Blue Book Values?


What is Kelley Blue Book's Fair Purchase Price and what is it based on?

Kelley Blue Book's Fair Purchase Price is an indicator of what other buyers in your area have been paying for a similar vehicle. It's derived from millions of real-world transactions and adjusted regularly as market conditions change. This includes both dealership and private party sales. Keep in mind that the Fair Purchase Price is a range, not a single number, and your actual price may vary depending on factors like color, options, dealer incentives, and local demand.

For a more in-depth review, please read the article What are Kelley Blue Book Values?


How do dealers price their used cars?

Dealers price their used cars based on various factors. These include the car's condition, mileage, the demand in the local market, and the wholesale price they paid for it, influenced by vehicle auction data. Dealers also factor in their reconditioning costs, marketing expenses, overheads, and a target profit margin. They also consider their inventory turnover. If a vehicle has been sitting for more than 30 days, they're more likely to lower the selling price. Dealers often use tools like vAuto, a sister company of Kelley Blue Book and AutoTrader, to understand vehicle pricing in their market. vAuto leverages used car vehicle listings to assess the market, which reflect retail prices, or prices being offered to and paid by consumers.

How do dealers price their used cars?

Dealers price their used cars based on various factors. These include the car's condition, mileage, the demand in the local market, and the wholesale price they paid for it, influenced by vehicle auction data. Dealers also factor in their reconditioning costs, marketing expenses, overheads, and a target profit margin. They also consider their inventory turnover. If a vehicle has been sitting for more than 30 days, they're more likely to lower the selling price. Dealers often use tools like vAuto, a sister company of Kelley Blue Book and AutoTrader, to understand vehicle pricing in their market. vAuto leverages used car vehicle listings to assess the market, which reflect retail prices, or prices being offered to and paid by consumers.

How do dealers price their used cars?

Dealers price their used cars based on various factors. These include the car's condition, mileage, the demand in the local market, and the wholesale price they paid for it, influenced by vehicle auction data. Dealers also factor in their reconditioning costs, marketing expenses, overheads, and a target profit margin. They also consider their inventory turnover. If a vehicle has been sitting for more than 30 days, they're more likely to lower the selling price. Dealers often use tools like vAuto, a sister company of Kelley Blue Book and AutoTrader, to understand vehicle pricing in their market. vAuto leverages used car vehicle listings to assess the market, which reflect retail prices, or prices being offered to and paid by consumers.

How should I compare prices from competing dealers on a new car?

When comparing prices from competing dealers on a new car, it's crucial to compare the "out-the-door" prices. The out-the-door price is the total cost of the car, including taxes, registration fees, and any dealer-installed options or accessories. This ensures you're comparing "like to like", considering the same year, make, model, trim level, features, and overall cost, rather than just the sticker price. Keep in mind that the lowest sticker price may not always be the best overall deal when you factor in all these variables. Always consider the full terms of the deal, including any incentives, rebates, warranties, and post-sale services.


How should I compare prices from competing dealers on a new car?

When comparing prices from competing dealers on a new car, it's crucial to compare the "out-the-door" prices. The out-the-door price is the total cost of the car, including taxes, registration fees, and any dealer-installed options or accessories. This ensures you're comparing "like to like", considering the same year, make, model, trim level, features, and overall cost, rather than just the sticker price. Keep in mind that the lowest sticker price may not always be the best overall deal when you factor in all these variables. Always consider the full terms of the deal, including any incentives, rebates, warranties, and post-sale services.


How should I compare prices from competing dealers on a new car?

When comparing prices from competing dealers on a new car, it's crucial to compare the "out-the-door" prices. The out-the-door price is the total cost of the car, including taxes, registration fees, and any dealer-installed options or accessories. This ensures you're comparing "like to like", considering the same year, make, model, trim level, features, and overall cost, rather than just the sticker price. Keep in mind that the lowest sticker price may not always be the best overall deal when you factor in all these variables. Always consider the full terms of the deal, including any incentives, rebates, warranties, and post-sale services.


What are the pros and cons of leasing a car versus buying a car?

Leasing allows you to drive a new car every few years with potentially lower monthly payments and less up-front costs. It's a good option if you like having the latest models and don't mind always having a car payment.

Buying, on the other hand, might be more expensive initially, but you have the freedom to modify the car, sell it, or drive it for many years, potentially saving money in the long term. However, you'll be responsible for maintenance after the warranty expires. This decision depends on your financial situation, how much you drive, and whether you view a car as an asset or a tool.

What are the pros and cons of leasing a car versus buying a car?

Leasing allows you to drive a new car every few years with potentially lower monthly payments and less up-front costs. It's a good option if you like having the latest models and don't mind always having a car payment.

Buying, on the other hand, might be more expensive initially, but you have the freedom to modify the car, sell it, or drive it for many years, potentially saving money in the long term. However, you'll be responsible for maintenance after the warranty expires. This decision depends on your financial situation, how much you drive, and whether you view a car as an asset or a tool.

What are the pros and cons of leasing a car versus buying a car?

Leasing allows you to drive a new car every few years with potentially lower monthly payments and less up-front costs. It's a good option if you like having the latest models and don't mind always having a car payment.

Buying, on the other hand, might be more expensive initially, but you have the freedom to modify the car, sell it, or drive it for many years, potentially saving money in the long term. However, you'll be responsible for maintenance after the warranty expires. This decision depends on your financial situation, how much you drive, and whether you view a car as an asset or a tool.

Should I buy new or used?

The decision between new and used cars depends on various factors including your budget, needs, and preferences. A new car is just that - new. This means that everything from the tires to the brakes and engine has not been used, which can provide peace of mind about its condition. Additionally, new cars come with the latest features and are typically covered by a comprehensive manufacturer warranty.

Financing rates for new cars can also be more attractive, especially when manufacturers are offering incentives. These incentives can lower the interest rate, sometimes to below what you'd get for a used car loan.

However, new cars can be significantly more expensive upfront and depreciate quickly. Once you drive the car off the lot, its value can drop substantially.

On the other hand, used cars are generally more affordable upfront and they suffer less depreciation. For the price of a new car, you might be able to get a used luxury or high-performance car. But, a used car can come with maintenance issues from previous ownership, and you'll likely face higher interest rates when financing. A certified pre-owned program can help provide some assurance about the condition of the car, but it's not the same as having a brand-new vehicle.

In the end, the decision between new and used cars depends on your personal preferences, financial situation, and risk tolerance.

Should I buy new or used?

The decision between new and used cars depends on various factors including your budget, needs, and preferences. A new car is just that - new. This means that everything from the tires to the brakes and engine has not been used, which can provide peace of mind about its condition. Additionally, new cars come with the latest features and are typically covered by a comprehensive manufacturer warranty.

Financing rates for new cars can also be more attractive, especially when manufacturers are offering incentives. These incentives can lower the interest rate, sometimes to below what you'd get for a used car loan.

However, new cars can be significantly more expensive upfront and depreciate quickly. Once you drive the car off the lot, its value can drop substantially.

On the other hand, used cars are generally more affordable upfront and they suffer less depreciation. For the price of a new car, you might be able to get a used luxury or high-performance car. But, a used car can come with maintenance issues from previous ownership, and you'll likely face higher interest rates when financing. A certified pre-owned program can help provide some assurance about the condition of the car, but it's not the same as having a brand-new vehicle.

In the end, the decision between new and used cars depends on your personal preferences, financial situation, and risk tolerance.

Should I buy new or used?

The decision between new and used cars depends on various factors including your budget, needs, and preferences. A new car is just that - new. This means that everything from the tires to the brakes and engine has not been used, which can provide peace of mind about its condition. Additionally, new cars come with the latest features and are typically covered by a comprehensive manufacturer warranty.

Financing rates for new cars can also be more attractive, especially when manufacturers are offering incentives. These incentives can lower the interest rate, sometimes to below what you'd get for a used car loan.

However, new cars can be significantly more expensive upfront and depreciate quickly. Once you drive the car off the lot, its value can drop substantially.

On the other hand, used cars are generally more affordable upfront and they suffer less depreciation. For the price of a new car, you might be able to get a used luxury or high-performance car. But, a used car can come with maintenance issues from previous ownership, and you'll likely face higher interest rates when financing. A certified pre-owned program can help provide some assurance about the condition of the car, but it's not the same as having a brand-new vehicle.

In the end, the decision between new and used cars depends on your personal preferences, financial situation, and risk tolerance.

What is the difference between getting pre-approved and pre-qualified for a vehicle loan?

Pre-qualification is often the first step in the auto loan process. It gives you a rough estimate of how much you might be able to borrow based on basic financial information that you provide. It doesn’t guarantee you'll get the loan, as it's a preliminary assessment.

Pre-approval, on the other hand, is a more in-depth process. The lender will check your credit history and other financial information in greater detail to offer you a specific loan amount and interest rate. This step can provide you with a stronger negotiation position when you are at the dealership because you have a firm understanding of how much you can borrow.

What is the difference between getting pre-approved and pre-qualified for a vehicle loan?

Pre-qualification is often the first step in the auto loan process. It gives you a rough estimate of how much you might be able to borrow based on basic financial information that you provide. It doesn’t guarantee you'll get the loan, as it's a preliminary assessment.

Pre-approval, on the other hand, is a more in-depth process. The lender will check your credit history and other financial information in greater detail to offer you a specific loan amount and interest rate. This step can provide you with a stronger negotiation position when you are at the dealership because you have a firm understanding of how much you can borrow.

What is the difference between getting pre-approved and pre-qualified for a vehicle loan?

Pre-qualification is often the first step in the auto loan process. It gives you a rough estimate of how much you might be able to borrow based on basic financial information that you provide. It doesn’t guarantee you'll get the loan, as it's a preliminary assessment.

Pre-approval, on the other hand, is a more in-depth process. The lender will check your credit history and other financial information in greater detail to offer you a specific loan amount and interest rate. This step can provide you with a stronger negotiation position when you are at the dealership because you have a firm understanding of how much you can borrow.

Why are some vehicle dealers non-negotiable like CarMax and others are negotiable?

Different car dealerships have different sales models. Dealers like CarMax use a no-haggle pricing model, which means the price you see is the price you get. This model can reduce stress for buyers who dislike negotiation. It also offers transparency in pricing.

Why are some vehicle dealers non-negotiable like CarMax and others are negotiable?

Different car dealerships have different sales models. Dealers like CarMax use a no-haggle pricing model, which means the price you see is the price you get. This model can reduce stress for buyers who dislike negotiation. It also offers transparency in pricing.

Why are some vehicle dealers non-negotiable like CarMax and others are negotiable?

Different car dealerships have different sales models. Dealers like CarMax use a no-haggle pricing model, which means the price you see is the price you get. This model can reduce stress for buyers who dislike negotiation. It also offers transparency in pricing.

Dive Even Deeper into Vehicle Valuation & Pricing

Dive Even Deeper into Vehicle Valuation & Pricing

Dive Even Deeper into Vehicle Valuation & Pricing

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CarOracle is a California-licensed automotive dealer, License No: 43082, with an autobroker's endorsement, enabling us to represent consumers in the purchase or leasing of new and used vehicles.

©2024 CarOracle. All rights reserved

CarOracle Logo

CarOracle is a California-licensed automotive dealer, License No: 43082, with an autobroker's endorsement, enabling us to represent consumers in the purchase or leasing of new and used vehicles.

©2024 CarOracle. All rights reserved

CarOracle Logo

CarOracle is a California-licensed automotive dealer, License No: 43082, with an autobroker's endorsement, enabling us to represent consumers in the purchase or leasing of new and used vehicles.

©2024 CarOracle. All rights reserved